Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
